Why chocolate is expensive even though cocoa price is cheaper?
As per people's concept, chocolate should become cheaper when cocoa gets cheaper, but it does not work in the market. It is common for chocolate companies to buy cocoa months in advance, so they are still making products with much older cocoa. In February 2026, Mondelez said that it had already secured cocoa for 2026 at higher prices than the current market, limiting its ability to lower costs. The other reason is that companies are still recovering from the cocoa price increment shock. Hershey announced in July 2025 that cocoa costs had risen unusually high, requiring a double-digit average price increase. Even after cocoa prices started to cool from their peak, some chocolate prices continued to rise.
In addition, shoppers are buying less chocolate because prices are already high. According to Mondelez, revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased 9.3% to $10.50 billion, but volume decreased by 4.8 points and price increased by 9 points which resulted in the company selling fewer units but at higher prices. The fact that prices are high may help chocolate makers protect revenues for a while. As per a Reuters report ahead of Barry Callebaut’s November 2025 result shows that cocoa grinding fell by 4.8% in Europe and 17% in Asia . According to the International Cocoa Organization in February 2025, London cocoa prices fell from $10,747 per tonne at the start of the month to $9,056 by month-end, while New York prices fell from $10,952 to $8,890. In February 2026, Reuters reported that cocoa prices globally had fallen more than 70% from late 2024 record.
Therefore, there is no effect of cocoa price decrease in expensive chocolate but consumption of a consumer may differ.
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